GOP consultant says McCain still has a chance listen10/29/08 Mitch E. Perry
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In a memo released last night, the pollster for John McCain's campaign, Bill McInturf wrote that 'as other polls begin to show Sen. Obama dropping below 50 percent and the margin over McCain beginning to approach the margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday.”
A series of polls nationally and in key battleground states show Barack Obama to be in good shape six days from Election Day, but as the Washington Post reported today, there appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics. One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads. Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed the race holding steady, with Obama enjoying a lead of 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.
Some in the McCain camp also argue that the polls showing the largest leads for Obama mistakenly assume that turnout among young voters and African-Americans will be disproportionately high. The campaign is banking on a good turnout among GOP partisans, whom McCain officials say they are working hard to attract to the polls.
And in an article entitled, “”Why Obama has to stay above 50 Percent”, Republican political consultant Bill Greener wrote in Salon.com earlier this week that “if history is any guide, Barack Obama, as an African-American candidate for political office, needs to be polling consistently above 50 percent to win. And in crucial battleground states, he isn't.”
WMNF spoke with Greener late last night and asked the longtime GOP operative what he’s talking about.