David Kotok: Employment influences on the market and Federal Reserve policies

11/18/11 Doug Driscoll
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America’s economic recovery will include a steady rise in financial stability coupled with slow job growth. That’s the opinion of David Kotok, chair of Cumberland Advisiors. He gave that assessment to an audience of about 120 people in Sarasota on Tuesday.

Translating complex financial trends into understandable graphics is why Kotok is in demand as a commentator on the US and global economy. His forecasts have been likened to a “terrified bull,” and are based on the Federal Reserve’s current policies, including a GDP that has returned to pre-crash highs.

However, he says the length and depth of job losses are unprecedented, with recovery extending well beyond any other in recorded American history.

Kotok is also the director of the Global Interdependence Center. Their stated aims are to work towards a global dialogue and free trade, in hopes of reducing international conflicts and improving living standards worldwide. To improve unemployment figures, Kotok says the Federal Reserve’s approach is to provide stability for the construction industry to recover.

However, he says that while the foundation for recovery has improved, it also depends on politicians allowing Ben Bernanke to stay the course.

Bernanke’s term ends in 2013. Kotok says uncertainty revolves around the future of his policies due to the upcoming Presidential election.

Kotok’s presentation was the first in New College’s New Topics series, which will run through next April.

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