Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) Storm Center | By Irene Sans
At this point, it’s easier to write about places that aren’t in a drought. Only the northern areas of two counties, Escambia and Santa Rosa, are not dealing with a drought. The rest of the state continues to experience a drought that is expanding and worsening day by day.
From worse to… less bad
According to the drought monitor scale, there are five categories: Abnormal, Moderate, Severe, Extreme, and Exceptional. Currently, the drought worsened in the first four categories, and there are no areas in Florida in the worst category (exceptional). The area covered by extreme drought increased from 4.86% to 16.87% in one week.
The area under a severe drought category expanded from 28.48% to 29.88% coverage in one week. The moderate drought almost doubled from 18.46 to 36.45 percent, and the abnormal drought decreased, on paper, from 41.85 to 16.54 percent. This is just on paper because it doesn’t mean that it decreased; instead, the areas under this drought moved into worse categories.
“Over the last 60 days, most of the central and southern Florida Peninsula received less than half of normal rainfall, with a few areas recording less than one-quarter of normal.”
National Drought Summary for April 29, 2025 by the US Drought Monitor
What played the most significant role in the worsening drought?
Yes, lack of rain. Most of the state’s official weather stations are showing a year-to-date rainfall deficit, with some areas receiving only a third or less of the average rainfall for the year so far. There are also the warm temperatures that contribute to higher evaporation rates, making the ground and vegetation drier. Temperatures have been warmer than average for the time of year over the last week, thanks to the high pressure that took over and brought southeast or south winds, bringing all the heat.
Could it get worse?
It may. We still have the month of May, which for some is the driest month of the year. For some areas, such as Central and South Florida, official stations indicate that the driest months on average are a thing of the past, and this month shows signs of change.
For the Orlando area, for example, May is the 5th wettest month. However, the average rainfall for May is about 4 inches, still relatively dry compared to the wettest month, June, which has an average monthly rainfall of 8 inches. For the Miami area, May is the 6th wettest month, but with a similar trend to Orlando’s area. On average, the Miami area received 6.32 inches of rain in May, while June gets over 10 inches, making it the wettest month on average.
The Jacksonville area receives, on average, 3.42 inches of rain in May but then quickly rebounds to nearly 8 inches in June and maintains that level through September. For the Tampa area, May is the last month with an average of slightly less than 3 inches of rainfall, while June has an average of 7.37 inches.
For the Tallahassee area and other cities along the Panhandle, the trend is similar, but May is one of the driest months of the year. For Tallahassee specifically, May is their third driest month of the year, with an average of only 3.36 inches. However, there is a switch in June too! Average rainfall for June jumps to nearly 8 inches.
It could be like a switch!
As you may notice, the big jump from one of the driest months to the wettest month in many areas of Florida is like the rain switch getting turned on. This will be mainly because of the pattern switch between rain driven by frontal boundaries, which get more scarce during the end of the dry season (May) to a pattern driven by sea breezes, where the heat ignites the sea breeze and with more moisture available there are more rain showers and the typical afternoon storms.
Then there are also those early tropical systems. Usually, May and June spin tropical or subtropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico. These systems tend to be messy, meaning they are not well-organized, and usually their heaviest rainfall is shifted to the east, toward and over Florida. Although a system like this can seem like a good idea to help alleviate the drought, it often causes more problems than it relieves, because its precipitation is too intense and also tends to increase the risk of tornadoes, as well as coastal problems like storm surges and marine hazards.
Ideally, to beat the drought, especially the most severe categories, we need a constant stream of cloudy days with regular showers. Heavy rainfall or downpours cause more problems than relief, because the ground, which has been compacted due to the drought, is unable to drain high quantities of rain. This produces flooding and many issues on the roads and for residents.
Fuel for any fires!
It is essential to highlight that the vegetation is dry, and this also coincides with the peak of wildfire season. Dry vegetation serves as fuel for any fires that get started. Local and state authorities perform control burns to help alleviate areas with excessive dry vegetation, but please do your part in preventing fires, too. Avoid disposing of cigarettes over vegetation and avoid parking over dry areas; hot tailpipes can ignite fires. If the humidity drops and there are winds, avoid activities that involve fires or sparks. The winds can quickly spread fires and make them difficult to control.
Leave a Reply
