FPREN | By Irene Sans
The week ends with the Independence holiday, but it will also end with heavy rains and thunderstorms that bring flash flood risk across many areas in Florida. We will review these sections section by section. First, let´s address the tropics.
There is a medium chance of tropical development from the residual energy left by a cold front. The front is stalling out, and this will continue to increase the instability across much of the state. We do not expect this area to develop into a tropical system this week. The soonest this system could develop is on Saturday afternoon. The American GFS model shows the system developing near northeast Florida, but this is being extremely generous. On the other hand, the European model shows the system barely developing late on Sunday but not surviving for too long. A cold front is expected to exit the Great Lakes early next week, and ahead of it, a trough may either push this system away or absorb it.
This system itself, as a tropical system, will not be the cause of the heavy rains and thunderstorms the Peninsula will receive on July 4th. If a system does develop, it will likely be after the July 4th celebrations and is expected to be late this weekend.
Southwest and Central Florida on July 4th
Along the west-central coast, there is a slight chance of flash flooding. From Cape Coral through Tampa and its surrounding areas, there could be between 2 and 4 inches of rain, with some isolated areas potentially receiving up to 6 inches. It was a rainy Wednesday, and the ground is already well-saturated. Storms are expected to persist through the evening on Friday, so be sure to monitor the storm and stay indoors if there is lightning.
The Orlando area, including Melbourne, is expected to receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain through Friday night. Some isolated areas could receive up to 4 inches of rain, potentially resulting in minor flooding in certain regions. The weekend will remain unsettled across Central and Southwest Florida with likely showers in the morning and afternoon thunderstorms.
North Florida and the Panhandle on July 4th
The Panhandle is expected to remain dry for the July 4th holiday. There is a slight chance of scattered showers and isolated storms, but this trend is expected to continue downward into Friday evening. Saturday will also stay with a low chance for showers, but storm activity is likely to pick up again by late this weekend, due to local effects.
North Florida is likely to experience isolated flash floods through early this weekend as the front stalls and any future tropical energy tries to spin nearby. There could be some areas with up to 4 inches of rain, especially areas south of Jacksonville.
South Florida’s July 4th
One to 3 inches of rain are possible through Friday night across South Florida, especially along metro areas. This is beneficial rain, but keep in mind that with the ground so dry, areas that receive high amounts in a short period may struggle to drain, and flooding may develop. This is especially significant in Palm Beach and Broward counties, where a severe and patchy area of extreme drought.
The weekend may have less shower and thunderstorm activity, as the low is expected to be near the Carolinas. Since this system spins counterclockwise, there could be a bit of dry air filtering in from the north. There could still be a few showers on Saturday, with the chance for afternoon storms, but they will likely be more sparse.
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