UNF poll shows Trump leads Harris by seven points in Florida

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A white barrier stands in a grassy field that says "We The People" and "Vote."
Photo by Meghan Bowman for WMNF News.

The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida released findings of a poll of voters in the state.

A random sample of 774 likely Florida voters was conducted from July 24 through 27.

Trump vs. Harris

Of the people surveyed, when asked who they’d vote for in the upcoming presidential election, 49% said their vote would go to former president Donald Trump. In comparison, 42% indicated they’d vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.

PORL faculty director and professor of political science Dr. Michael Binder said the seven-point lead Trump has is “not a huge surprise.” Trump won the state in 2020 by three points.

Scott vs. Mucarsel-Powell

Respondents were also asked who they’d vote for if the U.S. Senate race were held today, 47% said they’d vote for the Republican incumbent Rick Scott, compared to the 43% who expressed they’d vote for Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. 

Constitutional amendments

But while Republican lawmakers got higher percentages, the constitutional amendments on the ballot went the opposite direction.

Recreational cannabis

63% of respondents said they would vote to pass Amendment Three, which would allow recreational use of marijuana for adults. A 60% supermajority vote is required for the approval of the amendment.

Abortion rights

For Amendment Four, which would limit the government’s interference with abortion access, 69% indicated a vote of “yes,” and just 23% said “no.” Eight percent said they did not know or refused to answer. This is somewhat more support than it received from registered voters last Fall when 62% said they would vote “yes,” and 29% said “no,” according to the press release.

Partisan school boards

Amendment 1, titled “Partisan Election of Members of District School Boards,” which could have the potential to further politicize education in the state, received more mixed results.

40% of respondents said they would vote “no,” 37% said “yes,” and 23% either did not know or refused to answer.

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