By Jeff George, Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN). Published August 24, 2023
Update: on Friday, after this story was published, the potential storm heading for the Gulf now has a high chance of development
According to News Service of Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis directed the state Division of Emergency Management to prepare for a storm that could affect Florida next week. “Residents should remain vigilant and prepare for possible impacts early next week,”
DeSantis said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. The National Hurricane Center on Friday was tracking the weather disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
The system was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but it is expected to gradually develop in the coming days as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
If it strengthens into a named storm, it would be Idalia.
The National Hurricane Center’s seven-day outlook indicated the system, with a 70 percent chance of formation into a named storm, could go anywhere from Florida’s west coast to the Panhandle.
Tropical weather system might enter the Gulf next week
The National Hurricane Center is now marking a spot from the northwest Caribbean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a moderate chance for development. Current data and tropical models are signaling that an area of low pressure may evolve along the East Pacific coast of Central America.
It’s important to note this potential area of low pressure has not started developing just yet. Confidence is usually not high in tropical models tracking a system that does not yet exist, so expect much uncertainty to continue until these signals turn into an actual system.
For now, most reliable models are showing consistent signs for something to evolve and push into the northwest Caribbean this weekend, then possibly the Gulf next week. For preparation purposes, the NHC has appropriately highlighted this area as something to watch. And at this moment, that’s all we need to do.
Tropical Storm Franklin
Systems like Tropical Storm Franklin are well developed, so confidence is much higher in the track and intensity. Franklin is now becoming better organized after pulling away from the Greater Antilles and will likely become a hurricane over the weekend. If conditions remain favorable, the storm has a good chance to strengthen into a category 2 as it wobbles northward next week. Regardless of how much Franklin intensifies, it will not pose a direct threat to Floridians. However, the storm will cause rough surf and rip currents along Atlantic beaches.
The tropics are expected to stay active as peak hurricane season approaches the next several weeks. Whether or not that system develops and moves into the Gulf, it’s always a great idea to check your hurricane plan and supplies.
